538 player projections. Fangraphs uses projections of each individual player (i.

538 player projections. When looking at a potential competitor for a predictive model over the same period of time, I compared the model to 538’s Elo predictor. Sep 7, 2017 · Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts? By Jay Boice and Aaron Bycoffe Filed under NFL Predictions Sep. A community for NBA discussion. What are some alternate models that have both player and team projections? I know DARKO has player projections, but I don't believe it has team projections. "538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Aug 24, 2025 · On-Pace - Every Game Played: Please note, these are not projections. Dec 29, 2020 · For last week’s downbeat, I focused on 538’s NBA Player Projections and how their model viewed the Utah Jazz starting 5. This website is inspired by 538's NHL Elo ratings, which are no longer maintained. Do people know of any good alternatives? Aug 31, 2021 · Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. We project over 180 scoring categories for approximately 1,500 players for the season, weekly, individual future years, 3-year future average and overall career projections. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court. Sep 1, 2022 · 538's 2022-2023 Player Projections dropped BASKETBALL Mar 20, 2024 · 2024 March Madness predictions Odds for every game for filling out your bracket in the men's tournament. 2 days ago · Fantasy football player projections from FF Today. Their projections include a 5-yr market value so I figured I'd put some contracts into a spreadsheet and see if there were any interesting trends or specifically good/bad signings based on the APY of the contracts that were given. negative $90. I think it’s neat to look at even if I don’t totally understand it. TLDR: Elo is simple, robust, and works pretty well. 538 Player Projections A few surprises. 7 in '26. ESPN bracketologist Joe Aug 30, 2022 · FiveThirtyEight’s NBA player projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history to determine what a current NBA player’s future might look like. We’ve been doing this for a while: We first introduced our MLB team Nov 17, 2022 · FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Nov 5, 2024 · 538's final forecasts for the 2024 election for president between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, plus the Senate and House. Explore the accuracy and performance of the nfelo prediction model for NFL games. Oct 23, 2024 · Here's everything that goes into this year's model. Read the release notes. 538 us a great example of how being great in one discipline (extremely accurate political polling, at least in 2012) does not necessarily make you great at all sorts of other disciplines. It's a complex me 538 player projections is really high on Derrick White. 538 predictions swing wildly that it's virtually meaningless. Injuries will surely have an impact, so if you're comparing these to player props, be sure to factor in that risk. Leverage our AI Player Prop Predictor for data-driven insights. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Sep 7, 2021 · Our 2021 NFL Projections Like The Bucs And Chiefs (Again) Get ready for some familiar favorites — and some not-so-familiar win-loss records. Select a Week An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 House of Representatives elections. So while Ingram's counting stats and advanced stats paint a certain type of picture it doesn't quite reveal everything. Oct 14, 2022 · Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling Machine By Ryan Best and Jay Boice Filed under NBA Aug. Our rankings are updated daily. com. Stay ahead in your fantasy league with Fantasy Alarm's 2025 NFL projections. See our projections for 2018-19 and The strangely hidden factor driving 538's projections for the upcoming season (it's injuries) Obviously a great deal has been talked about with regards to 538's projections of the Lakers, Warriors, and Pelicans this year. As a baseline, consider removing ~2 games worth of stats for QBs, WRs and TE, and ~3 games for RBs. Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nba-player-advanced-metrics development by creating an account on GitHub. Quickly see the most accurate rankings and view comparisons vs. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season. Now by rotation, I mean the guys getting regular minutes, not the end of bench or garbage time guys. Specifically, the model assesses the probability that a player Oct 18, 2024 · The closest election of the century keeps getting closer. In 2019-2020 538 did better than Vegas, us, or any other media outlet I found projections for. The Ringer's 2022 QB Rankings by Steven Ruiz UNDISPUTED is a daily two-and-a-half hour sports debate show starring Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe, and moderated by Jenny Taft. 538 uses Elo rankings, based on Oct 14, 2021 · But testing before the 2020-21 season found that RAPTOR outperformed PREDATOR, so RAPTOR was used for both the player projections and the team forecasts. We also use these simulations to project the draft order and lottery winners. ATC regularly finishes as among the most accurate polls in evaluations conducted at the ends of the seasons. For instance it doesn't take into account that Luke Walton is a bad coach. DARKO's predictive box score stats are far more predictive than someone's season averages 538’s projection for every player on the Philadelphia 76ers - LOVENBAYou can take this as gospel or take this to mean absolutely nothing. 538’s Elo projections were at a 65. 5 days ago · Discover a winning edge at VSiN! Gain expert insights, exclusive tips, betting splits, real-time odds, and live broadcasts. Or that the Lakers player development is pretty atrocious. Oct 9, 2024 · An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 House of Representatives elections. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t. This sheet does not identify players' first moments and severely undervalues legends past their prime. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former Jun 26, 2018 · CARMELO NBA Player Projections: Our probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like, based on similar players throughout history. Since then, we’ve steadily expanded the number of leagues we forecast, added features Jun 8, 2021 · Welcome to the latest installment of what we’re hoping to make a biennial practice: an after-action review of FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts, which in thi… Inspired by FiveThirtyEight’s update of their CARMELO NBA player projections, a recent conversation on Twitter brought up the value of Elo Ratings. Jun 26, 2025 · As always, the Hitter Power Rankings are based on a formula, constructed by MLB. The reason why 538 has the best in-season projection is its method. We have you covered as some of our college basketball writers Oct 10, 2019 · The Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. Trump general election. 538 Player Projections: Ball and Caruso are borderline All-Stars; DeRozan, LaVine, and Vucevic are average starters; Drummond is a key role player; Bradley, Jones, White, Dosunmu, and Green are rotation players; Dragic is a scrappy veteran; Simonovic and Terry are OK prospects Their projections were unfortunately not great. LaMelo Ball $310M Jan 9, 2023 · For players with fewer than 10 or more than 100 starts, we don’t revert their ratings at all. Those three categories are weighted so as to place the greatest emphasis on the first two. Access expert player rankings, detailed outlooks, and data-driven insights to optimize your draft and weekly lineups. They also seem to aggressively project declines over 5y to these guys with We take great pride in our projections and rankings. Here's how each expert compares and who is the most accurate game predictor of the 2025 NFL season. The stats show he's a really good player. Apr 6, 2025 · Silver Bulletin odds and bracket projections for March Madness, the men's NCAA basketball tournament. Just looking at the top 10 comparable players for Anthony Edwards, it seems he will either be a star for us or a total bust. They represent a player's current seasons stats pro-rated for the remaining games in the season if they were to play in every Aug 14, 2018 · Also, you can break down detailed future projections for every player in the league using our CARMELO player projections. That can be found here. ” Mar 20, 2025 · NCAA bracket predictions: Model hands out surprising March Madness 2025 tournament picks SportsLine's model nailed 13 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2025 NCAA if we can swap few rotation players with good starters, we'll be fine still funny checking my targets next year : turner just key role player, wiggins just average starter, while derrick white is borderline all-star lmao (OG land on good starter) Mar 17, 2025 · The Madness is almost here! The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket has been revealed, and it’s time to put together picks for your pool. 7% success rate. According to 538's 2022-23 NBA player projections, Russell Westbrook is categorized as a "scrub," while Anthony Davis and LeBron James are categorized as "borderline all-stars. Ballpark Pal is an MLB research platform based on game simulations. 538's own article is not very persuasive about how the projections for those teams turned out. Sep 7, 2025 · Easily view 2025 Draft rankings from 100+ fantasy football experts. 20 Here are the Oklahoma City Thunder, for example. Top Re: 538 player projections for 22/23 are out Potential RealGM Posts: 19,797 And1: 44,445 Joined: Feb 28, 2015 Re: 538 player projections for 22/23 are out Post #2 » by Potential » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:54 pm Scottie our future superstar OG superstar Siakam All Star FVV all star Trent good role player Top Hero_Panda Veteran Posts 538 Player Projections With the Highest 5 Year Market Values: 1. com’s data team, that considers players’ recent performance, season-long performance and performance over the past 365 days. 11M subscribers in the nba community. 6 days ago · Hoops Forecast is a basketball projections website with interactive visualization tools, season and career projections, Hall of Fame odds, and more. With 538 's newest player projections just released, I scanned through all the players list in nba. 30, 2022 2022-23 NBA Player Projections By Nate Silver Filed under NBA Jun. 2025-26 Simple Projection System2025-26 Simple Projection System Explanation of the Simple Projection System Projections are made for any player who played in at least one game during the previous season. NFL projections, bets, and advanced analytics Aug 31, 2022 · OG is a plug and play player who can fit with any team in any scheme. Compare up to 5 QBs across their careers with cumulative performance metrics. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current edge in polls but uncertainty about how the rest of the election could impact the state of the race Aug 2, 2023 · As the calendar turns to August and I gear up to declare my annual Premier League season predictions — coming next week in this here newsletter — the quest for optimal preseason predictions must begin in a new place for the 2023-24 season. Join the action! Jun 27, 2025 · View the 2024-25 Projections NBA power index on ESPN. Want Custom Fantasy Scoring? You are not logged in. the Expert Consensus. Yep. Jan 21, 2022 · My Evaluation Results Since FiveThirtyEight has generously made their data available on github, I was able to evaluate their NBA prediction models for the playoffs from 2016-2020, keeping in mind the points I made above (code available here). We must predict whether the final statistics for each player will be over or Jun 27, 2025 · View the 2024-25 NBA power index on ESPN. 2, 2022 Interactive historical NFL quarterback rankings with era-adjusted Elo ratings. Oct 9, 2015 · In addition to running player forecasts, we’re also releasing team-by-team projections that include projected win-loss totals for each club. The player comps for Miles are the sort of junk you could only get from dumping data into a spreadsheet and then Sep 6, 2018 · I think the gist of 538's projection method is this: 1) Create a regression-based baseline projection of a player’s future RAPTOR ratings for the next seven seasons using his PREDATOR ratings from the past three seasons, plus his age and the other biographical variables 2) Identify similar or comparable players using a number of statistical and biographical categories 3) Tweak the player’s 2 days ago · ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Expert daily fantasy projections for NBA players in single games and DFS on SportsLine. *These are 17-game projections, which is why fringe players have little to no projection. I decided to re-implement 538’s NBA Ratings and tried out a few improvements and variations. 538 just released their player projections thing . 7, 2022 Sep 3, 2025 · Don’t trust any particular projection system? We combine projections from all major fantasy football sites into a consensus. DARKO's metric (DPM) is similar to other advanced impact metrics in that it measures a player's value above/below average per 100 possessions. Aug 28, 2024 · How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling. You can’t just use stats to predict nba games cause there is such a human element to it (how do you know if a team is coasting? Or if a player is going to be utilized differently?) Aug 23, 2024 · The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Futures prop bets are a popular form of betting in which the market maker sets a value for a given proposition. md at master · fivethirtyeight/data Jun 19, 2015 · Karl-Anthony Towns of the University of Kentucky, during a game against Notre Dame in the 2015 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Sep 16, 2025 · An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election. Fangraphs uses projections of each individual player (i. Labeling him a borderline all star with a 5 year contract value of 104. IQ gets the best projection, and everyone on the roster (even Cam) except Keels and… Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. We provide season-long and game-level projections, updated daily. Login or Register Aug 10, 2018 · The Details We first published FiveThirtyEight’s club soccer predictions in January 2017 with six leagues. Dive into today's slate with insights across every game, player, and ballpark. NBA executives say it is the most useful publicly-available metric. Explore fantasy football projections with latest player news, trends, injuries and other information and can be sorted statistically for your picks. 17 votes, 16 comments. Senate. The thing with 538 projections is that it tries to be as objective as possible and so it doesn't take into account context. [538] New CARMELO player projections have Kevin Knox's 5-year market value pegged at. 2 in '23 whereas Scottie's career high will be 8. . 33 votes, 83 comments. fivethirtyeight. 2 days ago · Plan your next move for DFS and betting with the latest fantasy football rankings based on data-driven NFL player projections. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. All 435 seats will be contes Get the latest fantasy football rankings at the NFL. The reason why this projection is all over this place is because there's not much data on Lamelo or players from the NBL not because 538 is bad at projections We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Luka Doncic $406M 3. For today, let’s look into the rest of the 3 days ago · Find out more about our PECOTA projections. e WAR projections), adjust for playing time & opponent and that's how they get the numbers. com/complete-history-of-the-nba 31 votes, 28 comments. Oct 23, 2019 · Uses full player-tracking RAPTOR for seasons since 2013-14, and estimated RAPTOR for earlier seasons. Sep 1, 2022 · Re: 538 player projections for 22/23 are out Post #44 » by OakleyDokely » Tue Sep 6, 2022 2:28 pm pagal wrote: 538 has turned into a clown show. Apparently, they had the best projections last season so it's interesting… Jun 28, 2023 · ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. 0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament Bill Bender March 13, 2025 6:49 pm PDT 538's CARMELO projections has a new projected five-year player value (translated into a dollar figure) assigned to each player, so I ran through and jotted each one down in Excel. ESPN bracketologist Joe It's not unlike what a site like 538 does in terms of weighting better quality polls (determined by past performance as well as characteristics of the poll, such as sample size) more than lower quality polls. It is the statistical expectation of every relevant player for the 2025 NFL season. 2 million The totals you see are correct. Sep 20, 2021 · Anyway, long story short; 538's formula takes on/off +/- and defensive metrics way too much into consideration, while letting shooting and scoring efficiency get entirely underrated (rather ironically, given today's emphasis on playmakers and 3P shooters). I pulled all the free agency signing numbers from Aug 26, 2025 · ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. The model powering this forecast combines our polling averages for Find the best projected stats of the 2025 NFL season and build the best Fantasy Football team. NBA players/management/media believe he's a really good Sep 5, 2021 · 538 Player Projections for 2021-2022 - The 538 website uses a metric that they named RAPTOR to evaluate an NBA player's contribution to winning. 2025 NFL Picks Accuracy Leaderboard : Overall Each week, Fantasy Nerds tracks the game predictions of the best and brightest in the NFL and compares them to the actual game outcomes. 538 Player Projections for 2018-19: Otto is Top-20 for 2018, and Top-15 for 7-Year Projection This data is intended to help make futures bets and Pick ‘Em lineups on sites likes PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy. The code is all available on this GitHub repo. Jay Boice contributed research. For rookies making their starting debuts, we assign them initial ratings based on draft position. I'm a fan of 538's player projections and they recently updated their data sets to reflect the last season of play. See more details about the results. Long live public projection models Aug 26, 2025 · ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. Feb 17, 2023 · From week 8 to the Super Bowl (excluding week 18), the model predicted a 70. Nikola Jokic $460M 2. Join us! New 538 player projections are out. See below the table for how it works. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. Playoff probabilities for NBA teamsPlayoff Probabilities Report Results are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round. Feb 9, 2018 · Our Data We’re sharing the data and code behind some of our articles and graphics. Philadelphia 76ers Oct 14, 2022 · FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight - data/nba-raptor/README. All 435 seats will be contes As we know, 538 no longer supports team and player projections for this season using their model (thanks Disney). Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances. I don’t care. Expert daily fantasy NFL player projections for single games and DFS, optimized for better performance and strategy. See where your team stands and strategize your next move for your league. com with their respective projection. If you are comparing players at the same position, consult projections. 43% success rate which was 5% worse than mine. " 2 days ago · Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. Get the latest Nestor Cortes fantasy baseball news, stats and injury updates, player profile, fantasy rankings, daily matchup ratings, DFS projections and more. Mar 19, 2025 · Who will win March Madness games this week? NCAA Tournament win probabilities, predictions, picks offer insight on first-round matchups, bracket. See y'll next season for more elo fun. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. We hope you’ll use it to check our work and to create stories and visualizations of your own. May 23, 2023 · FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Historical RAPTOR and other NBA data. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our 22 votes, 14 comments. While it was not perfect, it was a good model overall. He has a rare skillset that's tough to find, which makes him very valuable to the Raps and other teams around the league. Alas, our beloved soccer projection model king and what my phone tells me is my single most visited website is dead. I compared the accuracy of FiveThirtyEight’s predictions to a baseline model that only uses the team seeds to predict the winner of each playoff series An interactive electoral map derived from FiveThirtyEight's probabilistic model for the 2020 presidential election. Mar 14, 2025 · March Madness bracket predictions 6. 538 Player Projections With the Highest 5 Year Market Values: 1. I have a running thing with some friends where we project the standings for each conference and compare how we do to ESPN, Vegas win totals, 538, and any other projections I can find. For today, let’s look into the rest of the Utah Jazz rotation. It doesn't take According to 538's RAPTOR projections, which NBA players will bring the most value over the next 2, 5 and 7 years? Results below: 538 is shit at these predictions. 1 mil Mar 28, 2018 · The Details Each spring, FiveThirtyEight rolls out its latest baseball predictions for another season of major league action. Jun 17, 2025 · Thanks for another great season! Congrats to the Florida Panthers (I guess). If you are headed to a draft, use a cheat sheet. com Oct 10, 2019 · At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. Projections: DARKO provides both short-term and long-term projections of player performance. 538 released their latest RAPTOR player projections, seen here (… Feb 11, 2016 · FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team's "CARM-Elo" rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond Oct 14, 2022 · When the 2022-23 NBA season begins next week, our RAPTOR prediction model sees a league with a field of title contenders more wide-open than at any time in recent history. Apr 20, 2023 · FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Oct 19, 2022 · We released our forecast, which is based on FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR player ratings and projections, last week – you can check out our interactive here. See full list on fivethirtyeight. Get daily player prop predictions for NFL, NBA, MLB & more, powered by advanced algorithms. Jul 16, 2019 · 2018-19 CARMELO NBA Player Projections By Nate Silver Filed under NBA Jun. LaMelo Ball $310M comments sorted by Best Top New Controversial Q&A Add a Comment evilfrosty • Additional comment actions The raw data behind all nba predictions, including the story "The Complete History of the NBA" https://projects. He would start on every team Top Re: 538 player projections for 22/23 are out OakleyDokely RealGM Posts: 30,609 And1: 60,090 Joined: Aug 02, 2008 1 day ago · Get free MLB predictions from the experts at Pickswise. On Wednesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the U. Now, there are some valid reasons to do so (injury etc), but what kind of a model is it if it just takes the most recent news and makes something up? I know 538 is not perfect at all and these projections aren't watching games on a nightly basis, but I thought it was an interesting place to start. You must be logged in and create a league profile to apply custom fantasy scoring to the stats, projections and rankings pages. Unlike most basketball metrics, DARKO is a forward-looking projection of current talent rather than backwards-looking valuation of past impact. (the projections don't represent my own personal viewpoints) Aug 31, 2022 · Dan G. In-depth analysis and free sports betting predictions for every game of the season. 538's methodology never works for sports prediction, the site is a joke on that front. Source: NBA advanced stats There’s a whole lot of Jordan, James and Curry atop the list 4 days ago · Check out the latest NBA projections for the 2025 season. Negative defensive +/- just seems to tank players' worth. The projections for each players iirc don't change or barely changes, but injuries affect the projections iirc w/ playing time adjustments. 26, 2018 Mar 28, 2024 · MLB predictions 2024: Final standings, playoff projections, World Series odds for every team Edward Sutelan March 28, 2024 3:45 am PDT We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. S. According to them, BumVleet will be a 10. Connecticut is the best bet to repeat — but they probably won't. asaunha mtdoi yfkn mgiii jirlro mha ibu xplqyufvr aegkbgw nsuh